With 2025 delivering such positive returns, you’d be forgiven for going into 2026 with just a touch of pessimism.
2025 was a strong year for stock markets. Key indices such as the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 both finished the year at or close to all-time highs, and many investors around the world saw strong returns.
The current bull market - in which shares are rising - started in late 2022. Since then, Yahoo! Finance reported the S&P 500 is up 92%.
However, history tells us that this can’t continue indefinitely. Although the wider pattern of stock markets is to rise over time, this has previously not been completely smooth. Instead, increases in stock values are punctuated by peaks and troughs.
So, you might’ve thought we’d see the start of the dip last month.
Yet, January 2026 delivered no such return to form. In fact, many market indices continued to rise, with the FTSE 100 hitting (another) record.
Let’s take a look at how the markets moved, and some of the big investment stories, including gold’s impressive rally, the market reaction to President Trump’s tariff announcements, and the current state of the AI bubble.
The headlines: January sees developed markets make modest gains
Looking at indices tracking the biggest companies in the world, these trended upwards in January. Across the US, UK, Europe, Hong Kong, and Japan, all indices made gains. That’s despite small dips in late January after President Trump’s tariff threats.
Asian indices, including Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Japan’s Nikkei 225, performed particularly well. These outpaced the MSCI World Index, which tracks more than 1,000 of the biggest companies in the world.
A modern-day gold rush
As stock markets performed well throughout 2025 and the first month of this year, another set of assets did too - gold and precious metals.
Gold and silver prices reached all-time highs in January, rising to almost $5,600 and $120 per ounce, respectively.
Investors often see gold and silver as ‘safe-haven’ assets. So, they tend to perform well during periods of high inflation and market volatility.
Prices softened as the month came to a close, with gold falling 9% and silver by 27% on 30 January. But that still leaves both assets considerably up year-on-year.
PensionBee’s 4Plus Plan (our default pension plan for customers aged 50 and over) invests in gold through exchange-traded commodities (ETCs).
Markets respond to President Trump’s tariff news, but barely
President Trump kicked off 2026 saying he wanted to take Greenland for the US, including the possibility of using military force to do so. In response, nations including the UK, France, and Canada asked him to reconsider. The President then announced that he’d put tariffs on those countries if they didn’t align with him.
Initially, markets reacted to this news. Wall Street had its worst day since October 2025 and the dollar slid by 0.9% in late January.
However, what looked like it could make waves across the markets ended up as more of a storm in a teacup.
Just two days after the dip, European and US stocks had risen again. That came after the President’s speech at the World Economic Forum, where he backed down from military action in Greenland and the tariffs.
Many analysts and traders had predicted that these events would calm down and the tariffs wouldn’t come to pass. As a result, the market reaction was far more muted than when President Trump last announced tariffs on ‘Liberation Day’ in April 2025.
A key development that didn’t take place in January was the predicted bursting of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble.
AI companies surged in value throughout 2025, with 80% of stock gains in the year coming from the big US tech companies, known as the ‘Magnificent Seven‘. However, while these returns are most welcome, it could mean that the AI companies are overvalued.
What’s concerning many investors and analysts are the similarities between this and the dot-com bubble. In the early 2000s, a host of internet-based companies collapsed after they were overvalued without a sustainable business model to keep them viable.
Of course, the difference this time is that the AI technology is seemingly here to stay. But right now, with so many companies competing in the same market, it seems all-but-impossible for every AI producer to survive. And if funding tightens from investors, it could squeeze the smaller players out of the market.
It’s still to be seen whether the AI bubble will finally pop in 2026. But as for January, it’s business as usual for the AI companies and their products.
Risk warning
As always with investments, your capital is at risk. The value of your investment can go down as well as up, and you may get back less than you invest. This information should not be regarded as financial advice.
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